Economists do not see the bottom of the recession

The decline in GDP in April could be around 4%, said Deputy Economic Development Minister Alexei Vedev. During January - March of GDP, according to Rosstat, fell by 1.9%. Based on these figures decline in GDP in January - April could reach 2.5%, thought Nikolai Kondrashov of the Center for Development Economics. The same result calculations showed Vladimir Tikhomirov from the BCS.Earlier, the Economic Development Ministry forecast the recession in April at 3.5-3.7%, 

but it can be more, he does not rule out Vedev (quoted by "Interfax").Russia's economy will begin to recover in 2016 .The IMF predicted the Russian long sluggish growth Russia's economy will begin 

to recover in 2016, but the prospects for a better dynamics of 1.5% per year is not 8.

According to Rosstat, in April, virtually stopped the growth of nominal wages. And they fall in real terms (adjusted for inflation) accelerated to 13.2% from 9.3% in March and generally four months has exceeded 10%. Following this accelerated decline of retail turnover and paid services. Earlier, Rosstat reported fairly significant and unexpected decline in industrial production in April - by 4.5% after falling 0.4% in March. In April, accelerated decline in investment - up to 4.8%, at the same time improved the Rosstat data on the dynamics of the previous three months, said the "Interfax": decline in I quarter reduced by almost half compared to the previous estimate, to 3.5% to 6%.

Industry has not yet adapted to the compression of domestic demand, said Kondrashov: domestic demand continues to decline the rate of about 1.5% per month. April's dip in industrial production could be associated with such an adaptation attempt, in which case the reduction of industrial production will continue. Strengthening the recession in the industry and may have.contributed to the

 strengthening of the ruble, "eat" received some of the industry devaluation benefits, says Kondrashov: In comparison with the previous month in April showed growth only oil refinery. The drop in the basic sectors of the economy accelerated in April to 4.9% against 3.7% in March, he thought.Without waiting for the reform of economic recession or stagnation.

Rosstat recorded the first quarter of the recession authorities believe that there is no crisis, experts havewarned of a protracted stagnation 2.

The sharp decline in wages associated with the peak in inflation and a reduction of 10% of nominal wages in the public sector, says Tikhomirov. Falling wages will lead to a further reduction in retail, services, inhibition of housing, he expects. But judging by the ensuing unemployment down (in April it decreased slightly compared with March), drop in consumption will reach the bottom in the II quarter, says Natalya Orlova from Alfa Bank.

The decline in May and June may not be less than in April, in II quarter as a whole will be greater than in January - March, Tikhomirov says: "So far, only crawling into a recession, the first phase - the recession, the stabilization phase yet." The pace of economic decline may slow down only in the IV quarter, he expects. Who provide support to the economy growth in output in agriculture - because of the positive effect kontrsanktsy, increase defense spending and investments exporters whose profits support the growth of oil prices, and everything else is going down, said Tikhomirov.

"What we see - this is not the bottom," - I agree Kondrashov: deterioration in the industry, retail turnover, incomes, investment suggests that the crisis continues. The maximum fall will be in II-III quarters, but the more important question - the rate of recovery, said Kondrashov.

After the release of Rosstat data for the I quarter, showing that the decline was less than expected, analysts massively improved their forecasts. Thus, according to the consensus forecast of the Center of Higher School of Economics (more than 30 experts from investment banks and companies), the decline in the results of 2015 will be 3.6% instead of 4%, and in 2016 instead of the previously expected continuation of recession (decline to 0, 1%) will increase by 0.7%. The revision suggests that the worst did not happen, but the forecast growth of less than 1% combined with a continuing risk - the possibility of lower oil prices, the budget sequestration - means that the recession will continue their implementation, said Kondrashov. Recovery if you will, in 2016, agreed Tikhomirov. According to IMF estimates, the medium-term growth prospects of the Russian economy "mediocre" and not limited to the reform of 1.5%.

Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said that the constant appeal to the crisis no longer appropriate and encouraged to move to the agenda of development.