Economists do not see the bottom of the recession

<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBn5MQ2K_EYIou0sQTRCM-cQrytUgfr6q-BQCl9sNUl6x1IAGHYRCUPKN_lSBMTFZ7XIChFnWCbMRfwHswnCTd09jgzRbxOT75Z5JPvdgHdCMyU5tDLt_aYnxWacihZQyH5jTyG-4jbaV-/s1600/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="267" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBn5MQ2K_EYIou0sQTRCM-cQrytUgfr6q-BQCl9sNUl6x1IAGHYRCUPKN_lSBMTFZ7XIChFnWCbMRfwHswnCTd09jgzRbxOT75Z5JPvdgHdCMyU5tDLt_aYnxWacihZQyH5jTyG-4jbaV-/s400/Capture.PNG" width="400" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"> <br /></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"> The decline in GDP in April could be around 4%, said Deputy Economic Development Minister Alexei Vedev. During January - March of GDP, according to Rosstat, fell by 1.9%. Based on these figures decline in GDP in January - April could reach 2.5%, thought Nikolai Kondrashov of the Center for Development Economics. The same result calculations showed Vladimir Tikhomirov from the BCS.Earlier, the Economic Development Ministry forecast the recession in April at 3.5-3.7%, </div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"> but it can be more, he does not rule out Vedev (quoted by "Interfax").Russia's economy will begin to recover in 2016 .The IMF predicted the Russian long sluggish growth Russia's economy will begin </div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"> to recover in 2016, but the prospects for a better dynamics of 1.5% per year is not 8.</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"> According to Rosstat, in April, virtually stopped the growth of nominal wages. And they fall in real terms (adjusted for inflation) accelerated to 13.2% from 9.3% in March and generally four months has exceeded 10%. Following this accelerated decline of retail turnover and paid services. Earlier, Rosstat reported fairly significant and unexpected decline in industrial production in April - by 4.5% after falling 0.4% in March. In April, accelerated decline in investment - up to 4.8%, at the same time improved the Rosstat data on the dynamics of the previous three months, said the "Interfax": decline in I quarter reduced by almost half compared to the previous estimate, to 3.5% to 6%.</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"> Industry has not yet adapted to the compression of domestic demand, said Kondrashov: domestic demand continues to decline the rate of about 1.5% per month. April's dip in industrial production could be associated with such an adaptation attempt, in which case the reduction of industrial production will continue. Strengthening the recession in the industry and may have.contributed to the</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">  strengthening of the ruble, "eat" received some of the industry devaluation benefits, says Kondrashov: In comparison with the previous month in April showed growth only oil refinery. The drop in the basic sectors of the economy accelerated in April to 4.9% against 3.7% in March, he thought.Without waiting for the reform of economic recession or stagnation.</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"> Rosstat recorded the first quarter of the recession authorities believe that there is no crisis, experts havewarned of a protracted stagnation 2.</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"> The sharp decline in wages associated with the peak in inflation and a reduction of 10% of nominal wages in the public sector, says Tikhomirov. Falling wages will lead to a further reduction in retail, services, inhibition of housing, he expects. But judging by the ensuing unemployment down (in April it decreased slightly compared with March), drop in consumption will reach the bottom in the II quarter, says Natalya Orlova from Alfa Bank.</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"> The decline in May and June may not be less than in April, in II quarter as a whole will be greater than in January - March, Tikhomirov says: "So far, only crawling into a recession, the first phase - the recession, the stabilization phase yet." The pace of economic decline may slow down only in the IV quarter, he expects. Who provide support to the economy growth in output in agriculture - because of the positive effect kontrsanktsy, increase defense spending and investments exporters whose profits support the growth of oil prices, and everything else is going down, said Tikhomirov.</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"> "What we see - this is not the bottom," - I agree Kondrashov: deterioration in the industry, retail turnover, incomes, investment suggests that the crisis continues. The maximum fall will be in II-III quarters, but the more important question - the rate of recovery, said Kondrashov.</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"> After the release of Rosstat data for the I quarter, showing that the decline was less than expected, analysts massively improved their forecasts. Thus, according to the consensus forecast of the Center of Higher School of Economics (more than 30 experts from investment banks and companies), the decline in the results of 2015 will be 3.6% instead of 4%, and in 2016 instead of the previously expected continuation of recession (decline to 0, 1%) will increase by 0.7%. The revision suggests that the worst did not happen, but the forecast growth of less than 1% combined with a continuing risk - the possibility of lower oil prices, the budget sequestration - means that the recession will continue their implementation, said Kondrashov. Recovery if you will, in 2016, agreed Tikhomirov. According to IMF estimates, the medium-term growth prospects of the Russian economy "mediocre" and not limited to the reform of 1.5%.</div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"> Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said that the constant appeal to the crisis no longer appropriate and encouraged to move to the agenda of development.</div>

Economists do not see the bottom of the recession

The decline in GDP in April could be around 4%, said Deputy Economic Development Minister Alexei Vedev. During January - March of GDP...

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The political direction 'referendum' with 'D' new.

<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYU66fvjWcpv9X8OhMJHT-h_N1sie8SqB7j_QnDDndWnDh5XP7udRtnfQIddRo0DBYKzJVTMEA1HpA8aXfBJER9UOtXWQklbKK2hMAokBc8XwFR1oFNqiOGs6L9j3m9YDwBmzellkdMQUy/s1600/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYU66fvjWcpv9X8OhMJHT-h_N1sie8SqB7j_QnDDndWnDh5XP7udRtnfQIddRo0DBYKzJVTMEA1HpA8aXfBJER9UOtXWQklbKK2hMAokBc8XwFR1oFNqiOGs6L9j3m9YDwBmzellkdMQUy/s320/Capture.PNG" width="261" /></a></div> <br /> <div> Once at the meeting, "a joint" between the NSO. With the cabinet passed a resolution opening the way to amend the interim constitution to lead to a "referendum".</div> <div> "Circumstances" in politics and into another "dimension" one.</div> <div> To understand the situation One contained in the Interim Constitution 2557, Article 35 was always just the same as a "leading flag" to the draft constitution.No matter the "referendum".</div> <div> Meanwhile, during his first administration since August 2557, the month that the NBC. Whether cabinet regardless.</div> <div> NIA. Whether the Commission. Whether Constitution Drafting Committee.</div> <div> These "dodge" in two minds "referendum".</div> <div> The resolution to amend the interim constitution leading to 2557 to turn the channel into a "referendum" is tantamount to surrender and accept the reality.Fact, "The draft constitution," the "problem."</div> <div> Eventually made "overtures" toThe cabinet will find a way out of this, however.</div> <div> However, this phenomenon is Lakษnakar of "acceptance".</div> <div> Is most pronounced Acknowledges that the draft constitution states. The assembly up the issue and content.The issue that may cause a problem.</div> <div> If it is not an issue, you would not need to be modified.</div> <div> If the problem is not resolved, it will not be necessary to amend the interim constitution 2557 to open up channels to the "referendum".</div> <div> Is a reflection of the "36 great philosopher" ideas and inventions created themselves.</div> <div> The problem is that the lawsuit is "36 great philosopher" each have their own agenda, which was conducted in the direction of the discourse. "Inherited" power</div> <div> 1 power relay to the Commission. The first succession of power to themselves.</div> <div> The role and definition of the condition of the problem, leading to a state of acceptance and surrender to the idea of ​​unity in this type of exposure on NBC. Come out and unmask the "36 great philosopher" came out.</div> <div> In spite of the "ship Poppers," but it also "lifted up the check."</div> <div> The joint resolution by the Commission. The cabinet is tantamount to a direct criticism of the draft constitution as one within "the fifth line".</div> <div> As a result, one of the "great philosopher" is not the same.</div> <div> Because this definition means that the NSO. The cabinet does not trust the process of the "great philosopher".The distrust to the "intellectuals" to "academic".</div> <div> Meanwhile, the first of which is more important than the status of the Commission. The cabinet can not live like that had existed since May, and last month, in August 2557 again.</div> <div> Because the "inside" of "the fifth line," began churning uncertain.</div> <div> Meanwhile, the emergence of "The draft constitution," the first draft of the Drafting Committee. Even with the amendments prior to the vote to approve or not approve the meeting. The Mass. It is a sacred steady and strong.</div> <div> It must be through the "checkpoint" so many of the criticisms postures.</div> <div> The Interim Constitution 2557, Article 44 will also be announced and enforced whether or not a statement of Schopenhauer. Many issues will no cancellation or amendment or not.</div> <div> The channel of the "referendum" that is "D" in politics.</div> <div> Created when "circumstances" in politics would lead to a "situation" a new track.</div> <div> The situation in the realm of a full one-year term of the takeover. The situation in the realm of criticism. "Constitution" was fierce and intense.</div> <div> "The situation" will be the new black gradually spread out to appear.</div>

The political direction 'referendum' with 'D' new.

Once at the meeting, "a joint" between the NSO. With the cabinet passed a resolution opening the way to amend the interim cons...

Read more »