Why Kolomoisky fled from Ukraine

Igor Kolomoisky fled from the territory of Ukraine. Earlier it was reported that the Security Service of Ukraine plans to arrest him. The last days in this country have been marked by conflict between two oligarchs: Kolomoiskiy and President Poroshenko. The President tried to grab Kolomoiskiy hydrocarbon business, disband its private army, and eventually wins the armchair of the head of the Dnepropetrovsk region. The plans of the last commit revenge, and either separate from the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, or to overthrow the president and take his place in this period did not say just lazy. So how do you interpret Kolomoiskiy departure from the homeland? This - surrender, escape, or attempt to accumulate power for a large march on Kiev? And if the oligarch help if it meets a campaign against Poroshenko, the Russian special services? This is the "MK" asked the most knowledgeable Ukrainian political scientists.

- Do you have the desire and ability Kolomoiskiy seize power in Ukraine?

- I do not think that today, he has the opportunity. - Said, "MK" Director of the Kiev Center for Political and Conflict Studies Mikhail Pogrebinsky - He has a chance to win, but not now, when President Poroshenko remains high rating and support from the United States. In this situation Kolomoisky need to think not about the revolution, but of survival. Power structures are moving under the control of the President and, respectively, are selected closer to ensuring that create problems for Kolomoiskiy. He did the right thing, that went away. He left a lot of assets, its people are placed in important positions in the regions of Ukraine. All of these can lead remotely from abroad, without exposing themselves to the risk of death.

- He left not to become Ukrainian Khodorkovsky?

- Yes, to avoid becoming a victim of those who want to bring with them scores. Wanting to do it, and even make money on the additional political capital in Ukraine enough.

- In Russia, are starting to draw an analogy between Putin and Poroshenko. Strong hand, the fight against separatism and oligarchs ... Punishment Khodorkovsky was an important link in the chain of events that have strengthened Putin. Following this analogy, it is important whether Poroshenko plant Kolomoiskiy?

- Putin was no oligarch, and Poroshenko - himself an oligarch. This is a fundamental difference, which plays in favor of the President of Ukraine. For this reason Poroshenko can not repeat the path of Putin. The second reason is that Ukrainian President has no such support in the power structures that Putin was at the beginning of the "zero". Poroshenko does not control one hundred percent and the MVD or SBU. Add to this the fact that the United States firmly set on the weakening of the positions of all the oligarchs, including the president. States is necessary in order that they should be easier to buy Ukrainian assets.

- That is, in the US at some point may stop supporting Poroshenko?

- Of Course. I think that this is what will be waiting Kolomoysky. Poroshenko is becoming increasingly difficult, he will have to increasingly maneuver. Kolomoysky understands that today the president defeated us, but this victory - not final. It is not clear even then, whether the President's appointee to monitor the situation in the abandoned Kolomoiskiy Dnepropetrovsk. Ensure that the Dnipropetrovsk Republic has not made its independence, no one gave Kiev.

- According to my information, Kolomoisky will soon be living in Geneva - said, "MK" Director of the Kiev branch of the CIS Institute Denis - I think it will be there, slowly, coming up with various projects of his return to Ukraine and options for revenge President Poroshenko. I have no doubt that Kolomoisky wants to retain control of large enterprises, which are now the president wants to reassign themselves. I do not think He agreed to give up its influence in the southern regions - from Dnepropetrovsk to Odessa. We can assume that he hoped and that the US will be disappointed in Poroshenko.

- Let's try to put the question is very simple: Kolomoysky fled to avoid becoming a political prisoner, or he expects to return a winner?

- Of course, he's going to come back a winner. Kolomoysky be used in difficult situations and leave them in triumph. He is preparing a plan of his triumphant return to Ukraine.

- Benefits Are Kolomoysky Russia, and are willing to whether, in your opinion, the Russian special services to help him return to Ukraine?

- As far as I know, the Russian special services are already working with him. But - do not work in the interests of the Kolomoiskiy, and the fact that he made moves that will benefit Russia.